Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies released its 2026 State of the Nation’s Housing report this year, and the numbers are stark. With mortgage rates remaining above 6%, the monthly payment on a median-priced home is projected to reach around $3,100 — requiring a household income exceeding $120,000 to comfortably afford it, up from roughly $66,000 in 2020. That’s close to a doubling of the income threshold in just a few years.

It’s not just homeowners feeling the squeeze

The report’s findings extend well beyond people trying to buy. Over 21 million renter households — nearly half of all renters — and 18.8 million homeowners are considered “cost-burdened,” meaning they spend more than 30% of their income on housing. Separately, the National Low Income Housing Coalition’s companion 2026 report found a national shortage of 7.2 million affordable and available rental homes for the lowest-income renters.

Why the math has shifted so much

Two forces are compounding here: home prices themselves have risen, and financing that price got meaningfully more expensive as mortgage rates climbed off their pandemic-era lows. A given home price at today’s rates produces a noticeably higher monthly payment than the same price would have at 2020’s rates, which is why the required income has grown faster than home prices alone would suggest.

Check what this means for your own budget

National figures like these are useful context, but your own affordable price range depends on your actual income, existing debt, and down payment. Our house affordability calculator walks through the standard 28/36 debt-to-income guidelines using your real numbers, rather than a national median that may not reflect your market.